A number of other Western countries, especially in Scandinavia, have been more generous compared with the sizes of their economies.
But Schiffer doubted they could replace the United States either in dollar terms or in the longstanding US role of mobilizing international aid to priorities around the world.
China’s aid is more opaque. According to AidData, a research group at the College of William and Mary, China has provided $1.34 trillion over two decades — but unlike Western nations, it has mostly provided loans rather than grants.
Samantha Custer, director of policy analysis at AidData, doubted there would be any “huge, dramatic increase in aid dollars from China,” noting Beijing’s focus on lending and the economic headwinds facing the Asian power.
Still, she said, the United States will struggle to counter perceptions it is no longer reliable.
“China can win the day by not even doing anything,” she said.
“You can’t partner with somebody who’s not there.”
Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, said China is more interested in construction and benefiting its domestic industries, like building a hospital rather than training its doctors.
And with the freeze in USAID, China may have even less reason to step up aid.
“If they become the only game in town, it doesn’t generate strong incentives for China to compete and significantly increase development assistance,” he said.
One major gap will be conflict-related funding, said Rebecca Wolfe, an expert in development and political violence at the University of Chicago.
She pointed to Syria, where the Islamic State extremist group gained grounds in areas that lacked governance.
“Yes, the Chinese can come in and do the infrastructure. But what about the governance part?”
She said Western countries may not step up until they feel real effects, such as a new migrant crisis.
Different soft power?
Trump’s aid freeze is officially only a 90-day review, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that he issued waivers for emergency assistance.
But aid groups say effects are already being felt by the sweeping pause, from schools shutting down in Uganda to flood relief shelters under threat in South Sudan.
