Chapo, 48, takes over from President Filipe Nyusi, who bows out at the end of his two-term limit. Official results gave him 65 percent of the vote compared to 24 percent for Mondlane.
But observers said they noted irregularities.
Since he went into hiding after the October 19 assassination of his lawyer, Mondlane has rallied his supporters via social media live addresses that have been joined by thousands.
By returning, Mondlane will “reclaim the political initiative”, Morier-Genoud said, with the population “more militant than ever”.
Unpredictable situation
The unrest has caused major losses to Mozambique’s economy, stopping cross-border trade. Shipping, mining and industry has also been affected while thousands of people are reported to have fled to neighbouring countries.
Mondlane’s return “will either destabilise or resolve the current political crisis,” said Tendai Mbanje, analyst at the Johannesburg-based African Centre for Governance.
With tensions running high, there are even fears he could be assassinated, as some of his supporters had been, Mbanje said.
“He is the current hope and future of the youths: if his life is at risk or tampered with, that will be a source of unending instability,” he said.
“On the other hand, if Frelimo would like to unite the country, it is time that they take his return as an opportunity for dialogue.”
Any attempt to harm Mondlane would unleash a “big demonstration with unpredictable consequences,” said Mozambican sociologist Joao Feijo.
“We are talking about a population that has already tasted disobedience and is not afraid of anything else,” he told AFP.
Tailor Americo Bulule, 52, said he hoped that the security forces would allow people to go to the airport to welcome Venancio.
“There’s already been a lot of bloodshed so I’d like his arrival not to be a problem and the police to give the population access and we can go there to receive him without weapons and tear gas,” he said.
© 2025 AFP
